2013 Commonfund Forum Investor Outlook Survey (Commonfund)

March 2013

KEYWORDS: Survey, Institutional Investors, hedge fund investor, S&P 500, assets under management, AUM, Hedge Fund Performance, index, government debt, tail risk, European Union, financial crisis, oil, China, United States, Hedge Fund Research, Liquidity, risk management, inflation, deflation, investment management, real estate asset managers, venture capital, Emerging Markets, Japan, Equity markets, Private Equity, Fund of Funds, due diligence, women in alternative investments, lock-up period



  • Commonfund


Commonfund conducted its third annual Commonfund Investor Outlook Survey™ which gauges the sentiment of the more the 500 participants at the Commonfund Forum. This year data was collected from 217 attendees representing a broad range of nonprofit institutional investors and pension funds. The combined assets were $123 billion.

Overall, investor expectations for 2013 are reasonably strong with an average forecast for the S&P 500 Index of 7.9 percent and a median forecast of 8 percent. This was a slight decrease from last year’s average forecast of 8.3 percent and a median forecast of 9.0 percent. However, the dispersion of expected performance is wide with 20 percent of respondents expecting a return of five percent or less and one-third percent expecting a return of at least 10 percent. Over a three-year period, performance expectations reflect lower expectations with an average annual forecast for the S&P 500 Index over the next three years of 7.1 percent. The dispersion of responses was far less with 43 percent of responses in the range of 7.0 to 8.0 percent. This is a slight increase from last year’s three-year performance expectations of 6.8 percent, and 72 percent of responses in the range of 5.0 to 8.0 percent.

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